Tutorials & FAQ
Learn how Was It Luck? works and understand the metrics behind the magic
Welcome to Luck, Skill, or Suck
Welcome to "Luck, Skill, or Suck," the dedicated space for Fantasy NFL enthusiasts seeking deeper insights into their league's dynamics. Whether you're a seasoned manager or a fantasy football rookie, our unique analytical approach helps you decipher the crucial elements influencing your league's outcomes - is it luck, sheer skill, or just bad luck?
Background
This all started as a personal project when I was convinced I was getting extremely unlucky in my league. I naturally did what every sane and normal person does... I wrote a bunch of scripts to crunch the numbers and analyse the Fantasy data to prove my point. This led me to experimenting with visualising the data in a more friendly and appealing manner. Once I'd finished all my hard work, I figured that maybe others out there would find some use from my work. So here we are today, hope you enjoy the fruits of my pet project!
FYI: I was extremely unlucky - I knew it.
Mission Statement
At "Luck, Skill, or Suck," we believe that understanding the fine line between a lucky win and a skillful strategy is key to mastering the art of fantasy football. Our mission is to provide you with analysis, data-driven insights, and a touch of humor to make sense of your league's happenings.
Frequently Asked Questions
Effective Wins is a measure we use to determine how many wins your team should have in the season. Here is how it's calculated:
- We look at each game week and determine how many wins a team would have achieved if they had played against every other team in the league that week, instead of just their scheduled opponent.
- For each game week, we calculate the ratio of teams you would've beaten to total teams in the league.
- Effective Wins is the sum of these ratios across all the game weeks.
Example:
Imagine a fantasy football league with 10 teams over 3 game weeks:
- Week 1: Team A would've beaten 3 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 3/9
- Week 2: Team A would've beaten 6 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 6/9
- Week 3: Team A would've beaten 1 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 1/9
Effective Wins = 3/9 + 6/9 + 1/9 = 1.11
This means that in our 3-week season, the fair Effective Wins that Team A should have is 1.11
Stolen Wins is the term we use to quantify how many more or fewer wins a team has achieved in the season compared to what would be expected from their performance. This metric reveals the impact of factors like luck or scheduling on a team's success, apart from their skill.
Example - Positive Stolen Wins (Lucky):
Team B after 14 weeks is in the playoffs with 12 wins. However, they were lucky in a couple game weeks, beating the only other team they could've beaten. Their Effective Wins is actually 9.
Stolen Wins = Actual Wins - Effective Wins = 12 - 9 = +3
This means Team B has "stolen" 3 wins, indicating they benefited from luck or an easier schedule.
Example - Negative Stolen Wins (Unlucky):
Team A after 14 weeks has just clinched the playoffs with 7 wins. However, they were unlucky in a couple games, losing to the only team that could beat them. Their Effective Wins is actually 9.
Stolen Wins = 7 - 9 = -2
This means Team A has had 2 wins "stolen" from them due to bad luck or tougher matchups.
This depends on your league format:
No Divisions:
- For each team we look at their overall rank based on Effective Wins and Points Scored vs their actual overall rank.
- The Luckiest Manager is the manager with the highest actual rank compared to their effective rank.
- The Unluckiest Manager is the manager with the lowest actual rank compared to their effective rank.
With Divisions:
- If your league uses divisions, then the "luckiest" and "unluckiest" managers are based on divisional rankings.
- For each team we look at their divisional rank based on Effective Wins and Points Scored vs their actual divisional rank.
- The Luckiest Manager is the manager with the highest actual divisional rank compared to the effective divisional rank.
- The Unluckiest Manager is the manager with the lowest actual divisional rank compared to the effective divisional rank.
Example:
| Actual Rank | Team | Wins | Effective Rank | Eff Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team A | 14 | 4 | 10 | +3 (Lucky!) |
| 2 | Team B | 13 | 1 | 13 | -1 |
| 3 | Team C | 12 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| 4 | Team D | 11 | 2 | 12 | -2 (Unlucky!) |
Team A is the luckiest (ranked 1st but should be 4th). Team D is the unluckiest (ranked 4th but should be 2nd).
Calendar Swap is a fun "what-if" tool that lets you see how the standings would change if two teams swapped their schedules.
Each team keeps their weekly scores, but they face the opponents that the other team faced. This helps answer questions like: "Would I have made the playoffs if I had your schedule?"
It's a great way to see how much schedule luck affected the final standings!
Hopefully not a lot of people have to ask this question... but if you are one of them...
This is a reference to the TV show The League. It aired in 2009 for a total of 7 seasons and is a show about a group of friends playing Fantasy Football together.
Starting to sound familiar? Well, this show was vital in motivating my friends and I to start playing Fantasy NFL, it only seemed right to pay it tribute!
Join the Adventure!
Embark on your fantasy NFL journey with "Luck, Skill, or Suck." Whether it's through skill, luck, or overcoming the odds, we're here to enhance your fantasy football experience. Welcome aboard, and let's explore the depths of your league's destiny together!
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